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...JOAQUIN BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE......CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...STORMSURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...23.0N 74.2W

ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...* Central Bahamas* Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands,Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence* The Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeasternBahamas
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...* Bimini* Andros Island
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...* Remainder of the southeastern Bahamas including the Turks andCaicos Islands* Andros Island
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expectedsomewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life andproperty should be complete in the central Bahamas.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possiblewithin the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions areexpected somewhere within the warning area.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitorproducts issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin waslocated near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 74.2 West.  Joaquin ismoving generally southwestward at about 6 mph (9 km/hr), and asouthwestward or westward motion is expected to continue throughtonight. A turn toward the northwest and north is expected onFriday, and a faster motion toward the north is expected Fridaynight and Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of Joaquinwill move near or over portions of the central Bahamas today andtonight and pass near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamason Friday.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicatethat maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (210km/h) with higher gusts.  Joaquin is now a category 4 hurricane onthe Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some additionalstrengthening is possible during the next 24 hours, with somefluctuations in intensity possible Friday night and Saturday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from thecenter and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles(220 km).
The latest minimum central pressure extrapolated from HurricaneHunter aircraft data is 936 mb (27.64 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

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WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to continue in portions ofthe central and southeastern Bahamas through Friday. Hurricaneconditions are expected over portions of the northwestern Bahamas onFriday.  Tropical storm conditions will affect other portions of thesoutheastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands throughtonight.

STORM SURGE:  A very dangerous and life-threatening storm surge willraise water levels by as much as 5 to 10 feet above normal tidelevels in the central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow. A stormsurge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in theremainder of the Bahamas within the hurricane warning area.  Nearthe coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerouswaves.

RAINFALL:  Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulationsof 10 to 15 inches over the central Bahamas with isolated maximumamounts of 20 inches are possible.  Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10inches are expected over the southeastern Bahamas with 2 to 4 inchesover the northwestern Bahamas. This rainfall could result inlife-threatening flash floods.  Outer rain bands of Joaquin mayaffect portions of eastern Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republictoday and tonight.

SURF:  Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of theBahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portionsof the southeastern coast of the United States today and spreadnorthward through the weekend. These swells are likely to causelife-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Regardless ofJoaquin's track, a prolonged period of elevated water levels andlarge waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causingsignificant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal floodinglikely. Please consult products from your local weather office.